Lockdown and Getting back to work

Many states are about to go through the process of restarting their local economies.  Since the pandemic most states have enacted a form of stay at home order.  This has forced the government to label what jobs are essential and what jobs are not.  If you fall under a non essential job title you are not allowed to go to work.  Now some people are still able to work from home and have been able to relatively continue their life as normal.  The illusion of life getting back to normal is generally just that, an illusion.  Many shops have closed and will not reopen and many workers are still afraid to come to work.  The media has divided our country and half the country feels like nothing really changed and want to go about their daily lives as they did before the pandemic. 

  The other half of the country is afraid to go outside, get within 6 feet of another human and must wear a mask.  Now the reality of what is right is never cut and dry and is probably somewhere in the middle or leaning a little more one way or the other.  But what if you are truly afraid to get back to work. Some people who have invested and done well during the economic lull have worked for market research companies like the Intelligent Speculator, who have been known for shorting markets and doing well during pandemics are able to maybe take more time off then the average person.

In general though, most states have encouraged stay at home work for as long as possible.  Many companies are legally allowed to get back to work just like they did before.  They may be encouraged to follow stricter health guidelines, but they will be mostly starting up at whatever capacity the economy allows.  So what happens if you don’t want to come in for work.  Will you be officially quitting your job or getting fired?  It would be reasonable to say that if the work environment was safe and you decided that you simply are afraid of getting the virus you may be fired with just cause.

What does getting fired mean for you.  If you are fired due to you not wanting to work even if its proven to be safe, you may not be entitled to receive unemployment.  This means even if you are not wanting to get back into the workforce you may have to do it to support your yourself and or your family. It really is how the world works. 

  If you don’t want to work, your options are not going to be unemployment, you may be on welfare.  This standard of living will be lower than most are used to. Now every state is different, so I suggest contacting your local attorney, unemployment office,  and financial investment firm for all financial needs. I am just talking about the market as I see it.

Lockdowns Lifted and the Market

With it being in the middle of May of 2020 it looks like many states are going to lift their work or stay at home lockdowns this week.  The economy has been in a major slump since many workers have been told to work from home or stop working. Most of the world is actually planning on lifting lockdowns in some form or another this week or very soon. Many people are happy that the bans are going to be lifted.  Multiple protests have started to break out across the Country. The most prominent have been in Michigan and California.  People seem to be fed up with being told their job is not important enough to be allowed to make a living with.  They are concerned their consultation rights have simply been eliminated and in fact that is most likely right.  

Last week the stock market had its first gain in three weeks. Market researchers like the Intelligent Speculator  have been known to predict credit cycles and profit greatly from understanding where our economy is.  However it looks like most investors are still speculative due to the potential resurgence of COVID-19 if the economy gets back to work. 

This is the fear and uncertainty that is being brought by the lockdowns being lifted. The Dow Jones was up in spite of unemployment being at 14.7 percent.  That is the lowest number since the great depression. Considering that it is almost a hundred years in the past, this number is not good.  As of last Friday 20.5 million job losses occurred and it has our country scrambling to change the way things are.  The upkeep for our government to support all the unemployed is simply not sustainable and won't be able to be a long term solution. 

Although most sources will agree that the actual number of coronavirus cases in the United States is not correct, a source has us listed at 1.3 million cases of COVID 19 and 80,000 deaths.  The issue is that most believe these numbers are greatly exaggerated, especially the actual death count.  It seems the reports have been stating that a person's death was caused by COVID-19 no matter what the cause of death actually was if they were infected by the virus at the time of death.  

This has taken numbers from many states and greatly exaggerated them.  It is possible that a more valid number is that 1% of all people infected actually die.  Which would put the numbers around 13,000.  I do believe that if this is true and is reported that the economy will soon boom as the fear of the virus falls. As per the usual we are not giving financial advice only talking about the market as we see it.  For financial advice see your local broker, investment firm, or attorney.

Investing or not in 2020

This year has been a challenge for many.  The Pandemic has wreaked havoc on our economy and our stock market specifically again.  Rather any of the economic closures was necessary or even legal will be study for another generation because we know the truth will not come out in our lifetime.  The issue is now that it happened rather legal or even needed the economy has indeed been reduced by a massive amount.  The investments many of us have made have fallen 30% and are speculated to fall another 30 to 40% in the near future.  Now in economic downfall market research companies like the Intelligent Speculator are known for usually make a grand profit by shorting markets and trading well.  Alas, most of us are simply investing in 401ks and maybe some stocks and bonds on the side.  So what are our major plans if what we have has been reduced and what we may want to buy is going to go lower.

The first plan or possibly wise outcome is what I am actually going to do with my money.  That is simply to be cash heavy.  The market is so volatile that it doesn't seem wise to even be in it.  Just last week Warren Buffet made one of the boldest moves in financial history.  He sold all of his stock and holdings in American Airlines.  He told Berkshire Hathaway to do the same and they took a substantial loss in doing this.  So why would the world's almost best known trader take such a loss?  He believes the market has much further to fall. It could also mean that when it falls if he lost 20% he plans on purchasing those stocks back up at a much less amount in the future and gaining his money back.  Or he may think they are simply going to go under permanently and that he is better off investing in another area of the market. 

Another option is to believe that the market will go up and just hold off and leave my investments where they are.  Many are going to weather the storm.  Those that weather the storm during the 2008 market crash almost made their money back in 12 years and now that the market crashed again they are back to square one.  So I am not entirely sure this is the wisest place to be since the market keeps crashing.  If a true deleveraging of the economy is coming then holding funds may not be the wisest thing to do. I plan on personally l just holding on to cash and investing when the market falls further, if it does. 

As usual see your local broker, investment firm or attorney for all financial advice. I am just talking about the market as I see it.