Lockdowns Lifted and the Market

With it being in the middle of May of 2020 it looks like many states are going to lift their work or stay at home lockdowns this week.  The economy has been in a major slump since many workers have been told to work from home or stop working. Most of the world is actually planning on lifting lockdowns in some form or another this week or very soon. Many people are happy that the bans are going to be lifted.  Multiple protests have started to break out across the Country. The most prominent have been in Michigan and California.  People seem to be fed up with being told their job is not important enough to be allowed to make a living with.  They are concerned their consultation rights have simply been eliminated and in fact that is most likely right.  

Last week the stock market had its first gain in three weeks. Market researchers like the Intelligent Speculator  have been known to predict credit cycles and profit greatly from understanding where our economy is.  However it looks like most investors are still speculative due to the potential resurgence of COVID-19 if the economy gets back to work. 

This is the fear and uncertainty that is being brought by the lockdowns being lifted. The Dow Jones was up in spite of unemployment being at 14.7 percent.  That is the lowest number since the great depression. Considering that it is almost a hundred years in the past, this number is not good.  As of last Friday 20.5 million job losses occurred and it has our country scrambling to change the way things are.  The upkeep for our government to support all the unemployed is simply not sustainable and won't be able to be a long term solution. 

Although most sources will agree that the actual number of coronavirus cases in the United States is not correct, a source has us listed at 1.3 million cases of COVID 19 and 80,000 deaths.  The issue is that most believe these numbers are greatly exaggerated, especially the actual death count.  It seems the reports have been stating that a person's death was caused by COVID-19 no matter what the cause of death actually was if they were infected by the virus at the time of death.  

This has taken numbers from many states and greatly exaggerated them.  It is possible that a more valid number is that 1% of all people infected actually die.  Which would put the numbers around 13,000.  I do believe that if this is true and is reported that the economy will soon boom as the fear of the virus falls. As per the usual we are not giving financial advice only talking about the market as we see it.  For financial advice see your local broker, investment firm, or attorney.